By Julian Cross

In the delicate dance of international diplomacy, a shift has occurred—a moment that, like a pebble in a pond, may send ripples far beyond its origins. Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation and a rising power in Southeast Asia, has formally joined the BRICS bloc. It is a decision steeped in strategy, born of necessity, and fraught with both promise and peril.

The BRICS grouping—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has often been seen as the voice of emerging economies, a counterweight to the established Western-led order. For Indonesia, becoming the first Southeast Asian nation in this coalition is no casual move. It is a calculated gamble, driven by the pressures and opportunities of an increasingly multipolar world.

The Economics of Inclusion

Indonesia, like all nations, is driven by the currents of economics. In Jakarta, where the air is thick with ambition and a touch of skepticism, officials have pointed to the vast market access and investment opportunities BRICS membership may bring. President Joko Widodo’s administration has long sought to diversify trade partners, reduce dependency on Western markets, and embrace the potential of the Global South.

For a nation where growth and development are paramount, BRICS offers something tantalizing: the promise of economic resilience in uncertain times. The bloc’s collective GDP, already commanding nearly a quarter of the global total, represents a wellspring of opportunity. Yet, this is no blank check. The road forward will require deft diplomacy and a steady hand.

Indonesia has always charted a path of independence in its foreign policy—a tradition rooted in its "Bebas Aktif" (Free and Active) doctrine. Joining BRICS is a continuation of that legacy, a declaration that Indonesia will not be confined to the binaries of East and West. Instead, it seeks to amplify its voice, to shape the global agenda from climate action to economic reform.

But BRICS is not without controversy. The inclusion of nations such as Russia and China, with their contentious roles on the world stage, has raised eyebrows. For Indonesia, however, the decision seems less about ideology and more about pragmatism. The aim is clear: to navigate a world in flux with flexibility and purpose.

Implications for the Australia

What, then, of Indonesia’s Western partners? Australia, a close neighbor and trading partner, is watching closely. The bond between Jakarta and Canberra has grown stronger in recent years, grounded in shared interests like maritime security and counterterrorism.

But the global chessboard has shifted once more. As the BRICS bloc rises in prominence, the winds of change blow hard across the Pacific, unsettling Australia’s economic and diplomatic sails. For a nation long accustomed to operating within Western-led frameworks, this emerging bloc of economies poses both a challenge and a call to adapt.

Australia's prosperity is deeply tied to trade, and BRICS looms large as both a competitor and a disruptor. China, a founding member of BRICS, has long been Australia’s largest trading partner. But beneath the surface of that interdependence, tensions simmer—driven by political differences and sporadic trade disputes.

Now, with Indonesia joining BRICS, the region gains a new power dynamic. Indonesia, a key partner in ASEAN and one of Australia’s top 10 trading partners, may find itself pulled deeper into the economic gravity of the BRICS bloc. As BRICS strengthens its internal trade systems—exploring alternatives to the US dollar and fostering intra-bloc investments—Australia may face a world where its traditional markets become less accessible or more competitive.

Consider coal and natural gas, cornerstone exports of the Australian economy. These are resources sought after by many BRICS members, including India and China. But as BRICS seeks to fortify its collective energy independence, Australian exports could find themselves competing against new partnerships forged within the bloc. The implications for Australian industries could be profound, requiring diversification into new markets or innovations to remain competitive.

Diplomatic Influence in Question

Australia has long prided itself on punching above its weight in the international arena, leveraging its alliances with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Yet, the rise of BRICS challenges that calculus.

The bloc’s advocacy for a multipolar world order resonates with many nations in the Global South, offering an alternative to the perceived dominance of Western institutions. For Australia, whose influence in the Indo-Pacific relies heavily on its ability to shape regional consensus, the growing sway of BRICS complicates matters.

If BRICS expands its membership further into Southeast Asia, Australia may find its own voice in multilateral settings diminished, its influence eroded by the gravitational pull of a bloc championing an alternative vision of global leadership.

None of this is to suggest that Australia stands powerless in the face of these changes. Far from it. History has shown Australia to be a resilient and adaptive nation, capable of navigating the complexities of a shifting global order.

But the road ahead demands more than resilience. It demands strategic foresight and diplomatic ingenuity. Australia must redouble its efforts to strengthen regional ties through ASEAN, the Quad, and AUKUS, while simultaneously engaging with BRICS nations in areas of mutual interest. Climate change, food security, and infrastructure development are arenas where Canberra can offer solutions that complement, rather than compete with, the BRICS agenda.

Domestically, Australia must prioritize economic diversification. It is no longer enough to rely on resource exports to sustain its prosperity. The nation must invest in high-tech industries, green energy, and innovation—sectors that can thrive regardless of geopolitical headwinds.

The Future in the Balance

And so, we find ourselves at a moment of reckoning. The rise of BRICS represents not merely a challenge to Australia but a test of its capacity to evolve. In this new era of shifting allegiances and rising powers, Australia’s path will be neither simple nor straightforward.

But one thing is certain: to navigate this changing world, Australia must move with the times, forging a future that respects the past but is not constrained by it.

Learn More. My sources are your sources, (except the confidential ones. ): AP, Kompas (Money Section, Indonesian) Kompas (National Section, Indonesian), The Australian (Subscribers), Reuters.